Slovak News Back to the news
Analysts: Slovak Exports Still Not Reaching Pre-crisis Volumes
Friday 12 March 2010 Zoom in | Print page
Bratislava, March 12 (TASR) - January 2010 saw a considerable spike in Slovakia's exports (by 15.8 percent year-on-year), which may look very positive at first sight compared to the drop seen in the first 11 months of 2009, with 11.3-percent growth being recorded in December, analysts approached by TASR pointed out on Friday.
The development in January shouldn't be viewed too sanguinely however, as the level of Slovakia's exports is still far behind pre-crisis levels.
"The year-on-year growth of exports is the result of two factors. First is the big drop of exports last January, which artificially boosts this year's figure. Second is that the recovery of our business partners, which was intensified especially during the summer of 2009," said Slovenska Sporitelna analyst Maria Valachyova.
According to Valachyova, the January surplus in Slovakia's foreign trade balance is related to the delayed recovery of imports. Exports increased by 16 percent, while imports grew by only 4 percent y-o-y. "Imports are falling behind due to a lower household demand, lower fuel imports, as well as lower imports related to investments," Valachyova explained.
Analysts expect that the surplus in foreign trade in December and January may be maintained in the months upcoming but it may weaken in the second half of the year, which would have a negative impact on the dynamics of growth of Slovak exports. "The risk of a recovery in the shape of a 'W' is still appearing as a relatively probable. On the other hand, compared to last year the expected higher investment activity in Slovakia – especially the PPP (public-private partnerships) projects – as well as major investments such as Volkswagen or AU Optronics could accelerate the growth of investment-related imports again," said UniCredit Bank Slovakia analyst Lubomir Korsnak.
All rights reserved. Any publishing or further dissemination of press releases and photographs from TASR's resources without TASR's prior written approval constitutes a violation of the Copyrights Act.
