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Analysts: Situation on Labour Market Will Improve only Slowly
Thursday 18 February 2010 Zoom in | Print page
Bratislava, February 18 (TASR) - The unemployment rate increase as recorded in January (reaching 12.89 percent) represents only a slight rise compared to December (+0.23 percentage points) and the situation should begin to improve in the next few months, Labour, Social Affairs and Family Centre said on Thursday.
Analysts have noted, however, that seeing a fall in the number of unemployed will take time.
The unemployment rate rose in January due to the lower number of seasonal jobs (such as in construction), which is typical for the coldest period of the year, TASR was told by UniCredit Bank Slovakia analyst David Derenik.
If the periodical lay-offs due to seasonal works outage in winter aren't taken into account, January's unemployment rate will be roughly the same as in December, said Slovenska Sporitelna analyst Michal Musak. "It looks as if the situation on the labour market is stabilising. The revival of the economy has only been moderate, however, and the situation on the labour market will improve only slightly this year," said Musak.
The unemployment rate in Slovakia is strongly dependent on developments in industry, which began to signal a gradual recovery at the end of 2009. Analyst with Volksbank Slovakia Vladimir Vano pointed out, however, that these signals from the industrial sector may not last long. "The upcoming months will show whether the stagnation of the registered unemployment last October and November was the first sniff of Slovakia's increased competitiveness of Slovakia's industry or it represented only an administrative postponement of decisions on cost optimisation for the new year," said Vano.
Analysts differed on when the unemployment rate should begin to fall. Musak expects it to peak in the first quarter of 2010 at 13 percent and then decrease gradually. Conversely, Boris Fojtik from Tatrabanka foresees the climax in the second half of the year. It may drop earlier only in industry, he said.
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