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Analyst: No Steep Increase in Unemployment Expected this Year
Monday 15 February 2010 Zoom in | Print page
Bratislava, February 15 (TASR) - This year Slovakia may not experience such a steep increase in unemployment as was the case following the outbreak of the economic crisis, even though the industrial sector, the draught horse of Slovakia's economy, may continue in slump, analysts told TASR on Monday.
"We expect that the development may take a curve similar to the letter 'W', and this mainly in industry after the world-wide (government) stimuli dissipate. The second slump, which will be more moderate, might not affect employment," said UniCredit Bank Slovakia analyst David Derenik. He explained that companies were more pessimistic during the first downturn and laid off more people. Therefore the firms are currently on bare bones regime when it comes to staffing, added Derenik.
Nonetheless, Slovakia still hasn't hit bottom in employment, "even though the expectations for a slight and gradual revival of economic growth this year have been based on more and more firm fundamentals," according to Volksbank analyst Vladimir Vano.
Slovenska Sporitelna Bank analyst Michal Musak foresees the unemployment rate peaking in the first quarter of 2010. "Economic revival and the start of seasonal works may contribute to a slow reduction in the unemployment rate, but I expect this reduction to be only moderate," said Musak.
At the same time, analysts caution that even though if Slovakia's most important export markets recover this year, it may not automatically increase the number of jobs in Slovakia.
"It can't be forgotten that the recovery will be slow and gradual ... and job markets react to an economic revival with a certain delay," noted Postova Banka analyst Jana Mrvova.
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